PM Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau
India Canada Relations: Bitterness is once again visible in the relations between India and Canada. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has accused India of using its diplomats and organized crime to attack its citizens. India has shown a tough stance on involving Indian diplomats in the investigation regarding the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Rejecting Canada’s allegations, India has expelled six of its diplomats. India has already termed Canada’s allegations as baseless. Relations between India and Canada have been strained following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations in September last year regarding Nijjar’s murder. In the meantime, let us take a look at which areas may be affected if relations between India and Canada deteriorate.
Strained relations with India will impact student immigration, trade relations and Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy. First of all let’s talk about the issue of Indian students and immigration.
Indian students and immigration
Canada is largely dependent on India for Indian students and immigration. India plays a major role in the number of international students coming to Canada. Of the more than 800,000 international students in 2022, more than 40 per cent were from India. A record 226,450 Indian students came to study in Canada in 2022, rising to 2.78 lakh students in 2023, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). These Indian students are making a big contribution to the economy and culture of Canada. It can also be understood like this.
financial contribution
Indian students, together with other international students, help fill the labor gap in the Canadian economy, especially in low-wage jobs. It contributes to the economic growth and development of the country.
diversification of skills
Indian students bring diverse skills and expertise to Canada, enriching the country’s knowledge economy. Many students pursue higher education and research in fields such as science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), benefiting Canada’s innovation landscape.
cultural exchange
Indian students introduce their culture, traditions and values ​​to Canadian society, thereby promoting inter-cultural understanding and exchange. This enriches Canadian communities and fosters greater international cooperation.
Solution to demographic challenges
Indian students, after completing their studies, can potentially become permanent residents or citizens, contributing to the Canadian workforce and social fabric. This helps in addressing labor shortage and demographic challenges.
research collaboration
Many Indian students collaborate with Canadian researchers and academics, leading to joint research projects and publications. This strengthens Canada’s research capabilities and enhances its global reputation in various fields.
However, now that tensions are increasing in relations between India and Canada, there may be a decline in applications filed by Indian students. A major decline in trade relations due to the lack of Indian immigrants could prove disastrous for Canada.
Impact on Canada-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)
Talks are underway to sign CEPA between India and Canada. CEPA will cover trade in goods, trade in services, rules of origin, sanitary measures, technical barriers to trade and other areas of economic cooperation. It is estimated that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India will increase bilateral trade by US$4.4–6.5 billion (C$6–8.8 billion) and US$3.8–5.9 billion (C$5.1 billion) for Canada by 2035. -8 billion) will give a GDP gain of Rs.
This is how it is affecting
Now due to the ongoing tension between Canada and India, the talks have been stopped and it will affect Canada more than India. Pulses are the best example in this case. Canada is the largest producer of pulses in the world. India consumes pulses on a large scale. In such a situation, pulses were imported and one of the biggest contenders for imports was Canada. India Canada trade used to be about 8 billion dollars in which imports and exports were equal i.e. about 4 billion dollars. Over the years consumption and import of pulses have increased simultaneously while production has also increased significantly, but the quantity of pulses imported from Canada has declined and has been replaced by other alternatives such as from Myanmar and Nigeria. Around 2015, India imported pulses worth about $2.1 billion from Canada. Within a few years this has dropped to around hundreds of millions ($300–400 million). According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), India’s growing economy offers better trade opportunities to Canada. However, now due to the dispute, trade with Canada will be affected.
Canada marginalized in Indo-Pacific institutions
India has been praised as a regional counterpart to the United States and China due to its economic strength and security capabilities. Washington included India in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as a founding member of the recently formed I2U2 bloc along with Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Canada was not invited to join QUAD, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the I2U2 bloc (along with Israel and the UAE). Canada’s strained relations with India could hamper its ability to join key Indo-Pacific institutions.
Also know
There are also many allies who may be hesitant in supporting Canada to avoid strain in relations with the Modi government. India may also block Canada’s inclusion in some groups. Furthermore, in late November 2022, Canada released its much-awaited and long-awaited Indo-Pacific Strategy, which was greatly appreciated by Canadians. Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy could not have delivered its desired results without harmonious relations with India.
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