If both the countries get embroiled in war then it can also affect India because India has trade relations with both these countries. While Israel is a leader in the field of technology, Iran is a major oil producing country.
Iran attacked Israel with about 200 missiles on Tuesday. Since then, there are fears that Israel may retaliate against Iran. If this happens, then not only will the conflict in the Middle East and West Asia increase rapidly and there will be turmoil in regional geopolitics, but both the countries will directly enter into war, which can have an impact on the entire world including India. Quoting sources, media reports are claiming that Israel is preparing for a major attack on Iran and its possible targets are Iran’s oil depots, airports, nuclear bases, uranium mines, military bases and research reactor centres.
In view of the increasing tension, the security of the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi has also been increased in India. Delhi Police has cordoned off the outskirts of the embassy. If both the countries get embroiled in war then it can also affect India because India has trade relations with both these countries. While Israel is a leader in the field of technology, Iran is a major oil producing country. Meanwhile, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has advised citizens to avoid non-essential trips to Iran. The Ministry of External Affairs has also asked Indians living in Iran to remain alert and remain in touch with the Indian Embassy in Tehran.
Impact on India-Israel trade relations
Bilateral trade has been taking place between India and Israel. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Israel in 1992, bilateral trade and economic relations have progressed rapidly. Trade from US$ 200 million in 1992 has now increased to US$ 6.53 billion (except defence) in the financial year 2023-24.
While India exports diamonds, pearls, precious stones, automotive diesel, aviation turbine fuel, electrical equipment, textiles, radar equipment, transport equipment, rice and wheat to Israel, it also exports defense and technical equipment, space equipment, Imports potassium chloride, mechanical appliances, minerals, printed circuits etc. During the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit to India in 2018, the two countries had signed nine agreements in various sectors including cyber security, oil and gas, solar energy, space science, air transport, medicines and film production.
Trade relations between India and Iran
Relations between Iran and India are also very old. India has diplomatic relations with Iran since 1958. India has been exporting rice, sugar, man-made staple fibre, electronic machines, agricultural products, meat, skimmed milk, buttermilk, ghee, onion, garlic and canned vegetables to Iran. According to government data, Iran has been the largest or second largest importer of Indian Basmati rice since 2014-15 and had purchased 998,879 metric tonnes of rice in 2022-23. In return, India imports oil, methyl alcohol, petroleum products, dates and almonds, dry fruits, glass utensils etc. from Iran.
It is believed that due to war, bilateral trade may be disrupted and import-export may decrease, due to which some goods may become expensive in the Indian market, while the prices of some products may fall. This will have a direct impact on the economy. Although both Iran and Israel have been avoiding war, but if the circumstances deteriorate further, both the countries can go to war. The outbreak of war between these two countries will have the biggest impact on oil prices. According to experts, crude oil may become costlier by up to 5 percent in the international oil market. This may increase the economic burden on India’s oil import item.
Apart from this, challenges may also increase for India on the foreign policy front because about 4000 Indians live in Iran. Most of them are students or businessmen. In case of war, India may have to evacuate them in an emergency. Most of the Indians live in Tehran. Apart from this, some Indians also live in Birijand, Jabol and Mashhad. People from India are also living in Israel. About 85,000 Jews of Indian origin live there. About 18 to 20 thousand Indians also work in Israel. All of them are employed in construction, manufacturing and service sectors. Apart from these, about 1000 students study there.