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Rajat Sharma’s Blog: Exit polls are out, now waiting for the exact results

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Rajat Sharma, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of India TV.

Voting for assembly elections has been completed in five states and many of the exit polls that came on Thursday are shocking. The results will come on December 3. According to India TV-CNX exit polls, BJP is likely to form the government in Madhya Pradesh for the fifth consecutive time, BJP is seen getting two-thirds majority. This is very good news for Shivraj Singh and very bad news for Kamal Nath. There are surprising results in the exit poll regarding Rajasthan also. According to the exit poll, Congress government may be repeated once again in Rajasthan, the contest is close but BJP seems to be lagging behind Congress. The results of exit polls in Chhattisgarh are as per the predictions, Congress government can be formed easily, although the seats of Congress will be less as compared to last time, the seats of BJP will increase. There is good news for Congress from Telangana also. According to exit polls, KCR will bid farewell after ten years of rule in Telangana, Congress will form the government here with majority.

Madhya Pradesh

The results of Madhya Pradesh are the most shocking. The results of the exit poll are such that neither the BJP leaders nor the Congress leaders had imagined. According to exit polls, BJP is going to get a huge majority. The public has approved the plans of Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Shivraj has passed with full marks. According to India TV-CNX exit poll, out of 230 assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh, BJP can get 140 to 159 seats, that is, BJP can get more than two-thirds of the seats. Congress may face a big setback in Madhya Pradesh. According to exit polls, Congress will be reduced to between 70 to 89 seats. I used the words ‘will be reduced’ for Congress because in the last elections Congress had got 114 seats while BJP was left at 109 but this time BJP seems to be gaining up to fifty seats while Congress is getting 24 to 109 seats. There may be a loss of 44 seats. This is a big blow for Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh and a sign of a big victory for Shivraj Singh Chouhan. According to the vote share, last time BJP had got 41 percent votes and this time it is seeing an increase of five percent whereas Congress can get around 38 percent votes with a loss of three percent. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan said that he was saying from the beginning that BJP can get 125 to 150 seats. He said that BJP got the benefit of Modi’s leadership and his government’s schemes like Ladli Lakshmi, Ladli Brahmin and Teerth Darshan Yojana. Congress leader Kamal Nath wrote on Twitter at night – “When the counting of votes starts on December 3, the Congress government will be approved by the people. I have always told you that a country is run by vision, not by television. Many exit polls have shown Congress party forming the government while some exit polls are saying otherwise. You don’t have to let all this distract you. Like Arjun, you have to keep your eyes only on your goal. You have to concentrate your full attention on the day of counting of votes and ensure that every vote received by the Congress is counted correctly and the Congress government is formed in the state with an overwhelming majority. Jai Congress, Vijay Congress. Digvijay Singh said that the results in Madhya Pradesh will be completely opposite to the exit polls. The people of the state are fed up with the rule of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and want change. He claimed that Congress will win more than 135 seats in Madhya Pradesh.

If the results come in favor of BJP on December 3, then it will be a big victory for Shivraj Singh Chauhan because BJP leaders also felt that Shivraj Chauhan may have done a lot of work and implemented good schemes, but 18 He has been the Chief Minister for a year, so a fatigue factor may be at work. That is why BJP did not present Shivraj as the Chief Ministerial candidate, but Shivraj Singh Chouhan took it as a challenge, worked hard, held more than 150 meetings, went to every district, every assembly constituency, Take everyone along. The biggest thing is that Madhya Pradesh has worked for women, implemented 19 such schemes like Ladli Brahmin, Sukanya Yojana, Ladli Lakshmi, which are empowering women, that is why the vote percentage of women increased this time and this is BJP. It seems to be proving very beneficial for. If the results of exit polls prove to be correct then the stature of Shivraj Singh Chauhan will increase a lot in BJP. His claim on the post of Chief Minister will become more confirmed. On the other hand, these results will prove to be a big speed breaker in the political journey of Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh.

Chhattisgarh

But the situation in Chhattisgarh is completely different. Like Madhya Pradesh, the government is also expected to be repeated in Chhattisgarh. According to India TV-CNX exit poll, Congress government can be formed once again in Chhattisgarh. Congress is expected to get 46 to 56 seats in the 90-member assembly, while 45 seats are required for majority. Last time Congress had got 68 seats. In this context, Congress’s seats may be reduced by fifteen to twenty. On the other hand, BJP may get 30 to 40 seats. In the last elections, BJP had got only 15 seats. Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel claimed that Congress will get more than seventy seats. It may be a difficult Chief Minister’s post for Congress. Although Bhupesh Baghel is the frontrunner, but T.S. Singhdev also has a claim. Last time it was said that the Congress high command had made a deal for the CM for two and a half years. After the exit poll results came on Thursday, T.S. Singhdev said that let the results come, after that the decision on the post of Chief Minister will be taken by the high command.

BJP did not have strong leadership in Chhattisgarh, the organization was scattered. Bhupesh Baghel had started preparations for the elections a year in advance, the party and organization were with him, he implemented schemes like paddy procurement to cow dung procurement earlier. Bhupesh Baghel seems to be benefiting from this. Yes, it is certain that if Congress gets a clear majority in Chhattisgarh, then Bhupesh Baghel will be the Chief Minister. I think the wait for TS Singh Deo will increase further.

Rajasthan

There is good news for Congress from Rajasthan also. BJP has high hopes from Rajasthan but the results of exit polls are indicating the repeat of Congress government in Rajasthan. The effect of Ashok Gehlot’s magic is visible. According to exit polls, Congress seems to be getting between 94 to 104 seats in Rajasthan. The majority figure is 100. BJP is expected to get 80 to 90 seats. The interesting thing is that like last time in Rajasthan, this time also the role of small parties will be important because according to exit polls, small parties and independents can also get 14 to 18 seats in Rajasthan. In terms of seats, even though Congress’s figures appear to be 10 to 15 seats more than BJP’s, in terms of vote share both the parties are on par. BJP can get 42 percent votes and Congress 43 percent votes. Ashok Gehlot is excited by the exit poll results. Gehlot said that he was saying from the beginning that this time the record of thirty years will be broken, for the first time after thirty years, the government will be repeated in Rajasthan, he always believed that his government is being repeated. Gehlot said there was no sentiment against the Chief Minister in Rajasthan, and the kind of language used by BJP leaders during the campaign also benefited the Congress. Gehlot said something noteworthy. Said that the way BJP made religion an issue in the elections, the way it tried to polarize votes, if BJP succeeds in it then it is a different matter, otherwise Congress will form the government. However, BJP leaders are also not behind in making claims of victory. BJP leader Rajendra Rathore said that BJP will get more than 135 seats. The results of exit polls are showing a close contest in Rajasthan, Congress is slightly ahead, this can cause trouble for BJP leaders but if the results of exit polls prove to be correct then Congress will have to give all the credit for the gain to Ashok Gehlot. . There was a fundamental difference in the strategy of BJP and Congress in Rajasthan. Congress decided to give an open hand to Ashok Gehlot in time, completely handed over the command of the election to Gehlot but BJP delayed in bringing Vasundhara Raje on the stage, hence there was confusion among the party workers, and it was beneficial. Gehlot seems to be getting it.

Telangana

There is good news for Congress from Telangana. According to exit polls, in Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao’s departure and formation of Congress government is certain. According to India TV’s exit poll, Congress may get 63 to 79 seats in the 119-seat Telangana Assembly. Chandrashekhar Rao’s party Bharat Rashtra Samithi, which has been running the government for 10 years, may get 31 to 47 seats, while Owaisi’s party AIMIM may get 5 to 7 seats and BJP may get 2 to four seats in Telangana. Last time in Telangana, Congress had got only 19 seats while BRS had got 68 seats. There is a jump of 14 percent in the vote share of Congress, while the vote share of BRS may remain at 38 percent with a loss of 9 percent. But KCR’s daughter K Kavita has said that no matter what the exit polls say, BRS will score a century this time. Telangana state was formed during the UPA regime but Congress could never take credit for it. Full credit to K for becoming a separate state. Chandrashekhar Rao took it. Last time, KCR was so confident about his victory that he conducted the elections a year in advance. But this time the picture seems to have changed. Telangana Congress President Revanta Reddy is saying that this time Congress government is going to be formed. Revanta Reddy has even fixed December 9 as the date of swearing in. But Asaduddin Obasi termed Congress’s claim as baseless. Said that no matter what anyone says, the truth will come out on the 3rd and KCR will become the Chief Minister once again. This time the wind of change was clearly visible in Telangana. Congress had hopes of forming the government, hence Congress worked very hard. The contest between Congress and BRS was to attract Muslim voters. Till now, with the help of Obasi, Muslim voters remained with KCR, but this time it seems that Congress has got the outright vote of Muslims and the effect of this is that in the exit polls, Congress is seen forming the government in Telangana.

Mizoram

In Mizoram, once again Mizo National Front leader Chief Minister Zoramthanga is looking ahead in the race. Zoramthanga’s MNF may get 14 to 18 seats, while Lalduhoma’s Zoram People’s Movement is seen getting 12 to 16 seats. Congress may have to be satisfied with 8 to 10 seats. BJP can also win 2 seats here.

The elections of these five states are being called semi-finals before the Lok Sabha elections. If results come as per exit polls, if Congress forms government in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, then leaders of opposition parties including Congress will claim that there is a wave against Narendra Modi in the country. But I want to remind that even five years ago, Congress had won in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, BJP had lost in Telangana too, but after five months when Lok Sabha elections were held, BJP won all the twenty-five seats of Rajasthan, Central BJP won 28 out of 29 seats in the state, BJP won 9 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. Therefore, I think it is difficult to say that whatever decision the public takes in five states on December 3, its impact on the Lok Sabha elections will be there. However, exit polls are not results, they are only estimates. The exact results will come only on December 3. Must wait till then. And when the final results will be declared on 3rd December, India TV has made special arrangements to bring you the fastest results. This special coverage can be seen from 6 am on 3rd December. I will have the entire team of India TV reporters with me, there will be new and modern graphics, there will be a panel of experts. So watch the election results of five states with me on 3rd December, from 6 am. (Rajat Sharma)

Watch: ‘Aaj Ki Baat, Rajat Sharma Sath’ full episode of November 30, 2023

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