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Will the opposition’s new move against the BJP? How effective will it be in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat elections

what Has the opposition found a new way to take on the BJP in the assembly and local elections? Looking at the last few elections, it seems so. Now the strategy of the opposition is to keep Narendra Modi’s name away from the center of the election. Even in the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat assembly elections being held now, the opposition is trying to fight it on the basis of local issue and the work of the Chief Minister and keep national issues away from it. With this intention, they also want to keep the election low voltage. So will this give him the weapon to defeat the BJP? Then how will the BJP counter this strategy of the opposition? And will the answers to these questions be found in the election results of these two states or will it be reflected in the Delhi-Mumbai local body elections as well?

No competition with Modi in emotional, political battle of symbols
After being defeated repeatedly since 2014, the opposition has understood very well that it cannot compete with the BJP in a political battle of emotional and symbolism. Nor can it stand against Narendra Modi’s name in regional or local elections. By the way, the first experiment with this strategy was done by Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi in 2015. Then Kejriwal tried his best to counter the Modi factor, not only to make the Delhi Assembly elections a local election, but also limited his campaign to electricity and water. Ask for votes on these issues as well. While localizing the Delhi elections, he kept surrounding the BJP on the CM face.
Many changes but one electoral formula that the Aam Aadmi Party has not abandoned, now it is the turn of experiment in Gujarat.
Kejriwal’s path to success
Till the end, Kejriwal stuck to this strategy and won a big victory. In fact, if we look at the elections held since 2014, whenever the opposition tried to directly attack Modi to bring him to the center of the election and to counter BJP’s nationalism-Hinduism, every time the bet was reversed. fell. Obviously, sticking to issues related to local and state government has become a compulsion for these opposition parties, not an option. Now almost all the parties are trying to distance themselves from the BJP’s strongest pitch by consensus. Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar or Congress campaign in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat assembly elections, all are talking only on local issues. The opposition has kept its full focus on the issues there and is also trying to surround the government around these subjects. Regional parties have also started talking about local and economic issues by ignoring the national issues of BJP. Since 2014, 50 assembly elections have been held so far. In this 24 elections have been won by BJP and its allies. Out of these, Congress has won 7 and regional parties have won 19 elections. Where there was a BJP government, 11 won and 7 lost. Wherever the BJP has lost, regional identity and local issues have become important factors. In such a situation, the figures also prove that there is a strong logic behind this thinking of the opposition. In the 2020 assembly elections, Tejashwi Yadav rarely took the name of Narendra Modi in the entire election campaign in Bihar. Right now the Congress has kept its entire focus in the election campaign around the work of Jai Ram Thakur in Himachal Pradesh and Bhupendra Patel in Gujarat.
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Apart from Brand Modi, BJP is weak on other fronts
It is true that apart from Brand Modi, BJP does not look as strong on other pitches. The proof of this is the results of the general elections of 2014 and 2019 and the assembly elections held in between. Recently, the intention of the BJP has been to make every election a national election and seek votes in the name of PM Narendra Modi. Whenever she managed to do so, elections were often successful. This time too, whatever strategy the opposition makes, BJP is showing its intention to contest elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh only by bringing the name of Narendra Modi to the fore. The party hopes that it will also be successful in this.

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BJP is also looking for cut
Earlier this year, when the BJP was looking weak at the local level in Uttarakhand, it not only saved power but also won a big victory by bringing the face of Narendra Modi to the fore. But BJP knows that this is a weakness which has now come to the fore and counters have to be found. She would not want to lose her control over the states. For this, BJP may also have to work on a strategy to focus on the local leadership. On the other hand, the opposition is also aware that the strategy of contesting elections by separating Narendra Modi or national issues cannot be sustainable. After a year and a half, Lok Sabha elections will be held in 2024, where it will have to face these two things. But opposition leaders argue that if state by state strengthens, its natural impact will be felt at the national level and Brand Modi will be weakened. This will make it easier for them to compete in 2024. But politics is something that runs on the ground outside these equations and in the end, what wins is the same thing as Sikandar. In such a situation, the results of the two states will tell whether the opposition gets its results by making a strategy to keep the Modi factor away from the elections or is the BJP still in a strong position on its tried formula. The answer may be received on December 8.



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