RBI Monetary Policy: Inflation has been controlled, but headache will still remain

RBI Monetary Policy June 2023: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the interest rates constant in the current financial year. In the meeting that lasted for three days, the committee has not made any change in the repo rate. RBI estimates that the inflation rate will remain above 4 percent in the financial year 2023-24. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came down to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April 2023. Still, the retail inflation rate is above the prescribed limit of the central bank and there is no hope of getting much relief from inflation in the coming times.

Giving information about the decisions of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that inflation has been curbed due to improvement in supply and tightening of monetary policy. But, it has not yet come within the prescribed limit. The inflation target for 2023-24 has been reduced from 5.2% to 5.1%.

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This is inflation forecast
Shaktikanta Das said that the CPI inflation forecast for April-June 2023 has been reduced from 5.1% to 4.6%. Similarly, the inflation forecast for July-September 2023 has been reduced from 5.4% to 5.2%. RBI has retained its CPI inflation forecast for October-December 2023 at 5.4 per cent and CPI inflation forecast for January-March 2024 at 5.2 per cent.

these are the dangers
Governor Shaktikanta Das said that global conditions and monsoon will have an impact on inflation. He says that the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a normal monsoon in the country. But, the danger of El Nino is still intact. Global conditions can also affect the prices of sugar, rice and other commodities. These will also affect the inflation figures.

repo rate not increased
The central bank has not made any change in the policy rates i.e. repo rate for the second time in a row. According to experts’ estimates, this time there has been neither an increase nor a cut in the repo rate. The policy interest will remain at 6.50 per cent. This is a good news for the people who have taken home loan. The interest rate of most banks is linked to the repo rate. If the repo rate increases, then the interest rate also increases accordingly.

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