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Retail Inflation: Relief from inflation! Estimated to be 6.4 percent in November, reduced prices of food items

highlights

Food inflation may fall to 6.2 percent in November as against 7 percent in October.
In November also, retail inflation is expected to be higher than the prescribed limit of RBI.
RBI has tightened monetary policy to control inflation.

New Delhi. There can be a big relief on the front of inflation. A poll conducted by Moneycontrol among 17 economists has revealed that India’s retail inflation may come down to a nine-month low of 6.4 per cent in November. In October, the rate of retail inflation was 6.77 percent. In the previous month, retail inflation was 7.41 per cent in September. The government will release the retail inflation data for November on December 12 at 5.30 pm.

If the forecast of economists proves to be correct and retail inflation remains at 6.4 percent, then it will be the lowest level of nine months. However, November will be the 11th consecutive month in which the inflation rate will remain above 6 per cent. Not only this, for the 38th consecutive month, retail inflation may exceed the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4 percent.

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Food inflation will decline
According to Barclays Chief Economist Rahul Bajoria, food inflation may fall to 6.2 per cent in November from 7 per cent in October. “We see a marginal increase in prices of cereals and pulses, but a decline in prices of perishable items such as vegetables,” Bajoria said in a note on December 5. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, the five food items whose prices have decreased in November as compared to October include rice, palm oil, tea, vegetable oil and tomato.

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Figures will come after the increase in the repo rate
The November inflation data comes after the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the repo rate by 35 basis points on December 7. The repo rate has now increased to 6.25 percent. The Reserve Bank has increased the policy rate for the fifth time in 8 months. RBI estimates that the CPI inflation in October-December may be 6.6 percent on an average. It has been estimated to be 5.9 percent in January-March 2023 and 5 percent in April-June 2023.

Retail inflation is important in making monetary policy
The Reserve Bank of India mainly considers the retail inflation rate as the basis for formulating monetary policy. In such a situation, if the inflation rate is low, then the pressure on RBI is less. For some time now, the RBI has been trying to stimulate the economy while fighting high inflation.

Tags: business news, business news in hindi, cpi, inflation, RBI

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