Voting for Haryana Assembly elections is to be held on October 5 and now less than 4 weeks are left. BJP’s position is being estimated as weak in this election and many election surveys are also pointing towards this. In the Lok Sabha elections 2024, BJP had won only 5 seats in Haryana and Congress won 5. Since then, Congress is excited because for the first time after 2014, it is seen competing with BJP. If we look at the assembly-wise, in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP was ahead in 44 seats, Congress was ahead in 42 and Aam Aadmi Party was ahead in 4 seats.
Congress strategists argue that the Lok Sabha elections were on the face of Modi. That is why BJP was ahead in 44 seats and this situation will not be the same in the assembly elections. For this, the argument of 2019 is being given, when BJP won the Lok Sabha elections with a clean sweep. But in the assembly elections, it was reduced to only 40. In such a situation, Congress feels that if the same trend continues, it may get a chance to return to power in Haryana after 10 years. However, this election is not as easy for Congress as it thinks. There are many reasons for this.
There is also a growing danger of the Jat vote bank getting divided in front of the Congress
It is a matter of concern for the BJP that the Jat vote bank which has been voting against it continuously is moving towards more polarization than before. Apart from this, it was also seen in the Lok Sabha elections that a large part of Dalits have also moved towards the Congress. Still, there is a ray of hope for the BJP that there is a fear of division of the Jat vote bank due to the entry of parties like INLD, JJP. Even though the Jat vote bank is united on a large scale, the effect of many candidates from the community contesting at the local level is visible. In such a situation, there is hope for the BJP on many such seats.
BJP hopes to perform well in non-Jat areas
Many districts of North Haryana like Karnal, Kurukshetra, Ambala, Yamunanagar are Punjabi-dominated. Apart from this, there is a large number of outsiders in the southern districts like Gurugram, Faridabad, Rewari. The influence of Jats is also less in these districts. Rewari, Gurugram belt is called Ahirwal. Aam Aadmi Party is also fielding candidates in these areas. Apart from this, BJP is also hopeful of polarization of non-Jat votes. Party sources believe that BJP is not expected to get majority on its own in the state, but there are still chances of becoming the number one party. One factor is also the infighting between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja in Congress.