After all, how does the exit poll know whose government is being formed?
The year 2023 is about to end and with this the elections of 5 states have also been completed. Now the election results of these five states are yet to come on December 3. Before this, all the media organizations release their exit polls and speculate about which party is likely to win in which state. In such a situation, many questions arise in the minds of people that what are exit polls and how do they find out which party is likely to form the government in which state. In this story you will know all the details of exit poll…
What is exit poll?
Exit poll is a kind of election survey, which is conducted among the people on the day of voting. On the day of voting, when a voter comes to the booth to cast his vote, various survey agencies and people from the media are present there and they ask some questions and answers to the voter regarding voting, which makes it known that people are To which party has he voted? Let us tell you that this survey is conducted at different polling booths of each constituency. Please note that only voters are included in the exit poll.
When and how did the exit poll start?
Exit polls first started in America. According to media reports, it was used extensively in 1967 by American political researcher Warren Mitofsky during the governor election of Kentucky state. In the same year, Dutch sociologist Marcel VanDam did this during the general elections in the Netherlands. After this, it started being used extensively in western countries including America in the 1970s.
Why are exit polls released only after the elections?
In the year 1980, exit polls got embroiled in controversy for the first time. In the same year, presidential elections were being held in America. Meanwhile, news channel NBC released exit polls a few hours before the end of voting, after which this matter quickly got echoed in the US Parliament and the Parliament set up an investigation regarding the survey. Started to find out how many voters this survey influenced. After this, the US Parliament banned the release of exit polls before voting. Keeping this in view, all the countries adopted this method.
When did it start in the country?
Exit poll in India was started by IIPU i.e. Indian Institute of Public Opinion. In the 1980s, for the first time in the country, a survey regarding exit poll was conducted at the national level. At the same time, in the year 1996, Doordarshan had released exit polls for the first time in collaboration with CSDS. After this all the news channels started releasing exit polls.
How are exit poll surveys conducted?
First of all, the agencies conducting exit polls prepare some questions before the elections. After this, she trains one of her teams and sends them to different polling booths for the survey. Those people who come out after voting in line, those agents ask them some questions like who did you vote for? Then the agencies collect survey data from all places and start research on them. After the research is completed, a team prepares data on possible results. Then it is released on news channels half an hour after the final phase of voting takes place.
Which factors determine the exit poll data?
There are 3 criteria for how accurate an exit poll is. If any exit poll data meets this criteria then that poll is considered accurate –
The first is sample size – The data of any exit poll depends on how much or less its sample size is, i.e. how many people were contacted in the survey. Second is the important questions asked in the survey – The more balanced the questions asked in the sample survey, the more accurate the exit poll data will be. Third is the range of the survey – The data of any exit poll also depends on how large its scope was during the survey. If the scope is larger then the chances of the exit poll being accurate will be stronger.
This law is regarding exit polls
There are laws and rules in the country regarding exit polls. According to Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act- 1951, this can be issued only half an hour after the end of voting. If any company or individual releases a poll before the end of voting, it will be considered a crime and that person can be punished with imprisonment of 2 years or fine or both.
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