Nitish Kumar, CM, Bihar
Patna:The news of the displeasure of Nitish Kumar, who is the convenor of India Alliance and is planning to contest for the post of PM, is in the headlines these days. However, the results of the assembly elections in the three states have proved to be a reality check for the Congress and JDU in Bihar and ultimately forced the opposition parties to unite ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. After three meetings of the India Alliance in Patna, Bengaluru and Mumbai, it became clear that the Congress had the upper hand and leaders of other parties were thinking that the Congress would dominate the seat sharing talks for the Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, defeat in three states has weakened the position of Congress.
returned empty handed from the fourth meeting
For JDU, Nitish Kumar was hoping for the post of convener of India Alliance at least till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but anti-women and anti-Dalit statements during the winter session of Bihar Assembly went against him. He returned empty handed from the fourth meeting held in New Delhi on 19 December. There is a general belief that Nitish Kumar changes his target according to the circumstances. But, this time it is too late for them and they will have to stick with the India faction at least till the Lok Sabha elections. This is actually ‘one seat,’ for the JD(U) and the Congress party to challenge the BJP in Bihar. An ideal situation to go with the ‘candidate’ formula.
Will finalize the seat sharing formula – Lalan Singh
JD(U) national president Lalan Singh said, “The India Alliance meeting in New Delhi was successful and we will finalize the seat sharing formula in all the states within three weeks. The work is in progress and we are looking forward to the recruitment of such candidates.” Will select who will be able to defeat BJP in Lok Sabha elections 2024.” He further said, “BJP leaders are saying that India Alliance has not proposed the name of Nitish Kumar as the Prime Ministerial candidate, I would like to ask BJP “I wonder whether Nitish Kumar told you that he is the Prime Ministerial candidate. He talks without any basis.”
Rahul Gandhi spoke to Nitish
However, it is clear to political experts that Nitish Kumar still believes that he did not get the results he wanted from the fourth meeting of India Alliance and he will bargain hard with RJD and Congress. Sources said senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi spoke to Nitish Kumar on phone after the fourth meeting of India Alliance. But, the topic of conversation did not come up. Meanwhile, the general feeling is that he tried to convince Nitish Kumar to contest the elections with full strength, as he had done in the 2015 assembly elections.
JDU and RJD will contest elections on maximum seats of Bihar
There are 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. JDU and RJD will contest elections on maximum seats in Bihar. JDU and RJD leaders have not said anything. But, sources say that JDU wants 17 to 18 seats in Bihar and RJD leaders are also thinking the same. The leaders of both these parties can adopt the formula of 2015 assembly elections, when they contested 100-100 seats and gave the remaining 43 seats to the Congress party. This time they want to contest elections on 17 to 18 seats and want to give the remaining 6 or 4 seats to Congress and Left parties. There is also a possibility that JD(U), which has 16 MPs in the Lok Sabha, may agree on 16 seats and RJD will get 16 seats and the remaining 8 seats will be distributed between Congress and the Left parties.
There are three political forces in Bihar, RJD, JD(U) and BJP. Everyone knows that whenever two forces are on one side they win the elections, unless one performs weakly or bats for the BJP, as the LJP did in the 2020 assembly elections in Bihar.
The grand alliance had easily defeated the BJP in the 2015 assembly elections, when JDU and RJD were alliance partners with the Congress party. At that time the Modi wave was much stronger than now. Similarly, when JD (U) and BJP were together in the 2020 assembly elections, they won a landslide victory. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were also an example of this, when JDU and BJP contested the elections together with LJP and won 39 out of 40 seats in Bihar.
BJP’s morale high
Although BJP’s morale is high after the landslide victory in three assembly elections, it needs to be cautious before 2024, especially in Bihar. BJP always likes to find loopholes in the opposition camp to create confusion. If RJD and JD(U) fight together like in the 2015 assembly elections, BJP may have to struggle here. BJP is raising the issue of increasing crime and incidents of spurious liquor due to the failure of prohibition in Bihar and saying that jungle raj has returned to the state under the leadership of Nitish Kumar.
Bihar BJP president Samrat Chaudhary said, “Under Nitish Kumar’s rule, not only the common man but also the police are the targets of criminals. The murder of an ASI in Begusarai is a prime example of this. The liquor mafia crushed him in the line of duty.” In an underdeveloped state like Bihar, caste is the only thing that voters keep in mind during any election and other issues like jobs, industrialization, farmers and other problems are secondary. That is why RJD is in a comfortable position because everyone knows that Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Yadav will fight against BJP at any cost.
Lalu Prasad never compromised with BJP and RSS in his entire political career and this could be the reason why according to the recently concluded caste survey, the votes of Muslims and Yadavs (Muslims 17.7 percent and Yadavs 14 percent) went decisively to RJD. Will go along. If Koeris (4.21 percent voters) and Kurmis (Luv-Kush) (2.87 percent voters) unite in Bihar, then BJP can be easily defeated. (IANS)
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