Ukraine war.
birmingham year In the summer and autumn of 2022, there was much talk of finding a “second way” to rescue Russian President Vladimir Putin from an unwinnable war. Now, as Ukraine enters its third year of defending itself against Russian aggression, the suggestion persists – but it is increasingly being realized that it is actually the Western bloc that needs a way to sidestep all this. Is required. There has been huge loss of life in the two years of fierce war. Now Ukraine’s prospects after this are uncertain. Its losses would be difficult to compensate, both in terms of battlefield casualties and the flood of emigration following the invasion. Russia continues to dominate the war.
Following Russia’s capture of Avdiivka, another Ukrainian city, Stephen Wolf, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, said now is the time to “increase Kiev’s aid to the West, compromise or suffer humiliation from Russia”. is no more. The meaning of his statement is clear that despite Ukraine’s help from Europe and Western countries against Russia, Putin’s army dominates Kiev. Now Ukraine is fighting to save its existence. At the same time, Europe and Western countries have gradually reduced their support to Kiev. In such a situation, the danger of defeat is clearly looming over Ukraine.
The consequences for Ukraine’s economy could be fatal.
This round of war could have serious consequences for Ukraine’s already struggling economy. Not only this, the cost of war is increasing at an astonishing rate. The latest joint assessment of Ukraine’s recovery needs by the EU, the World Bank and the United Nations puts these at US$486 billion, an increase of US$75 billion from the previous year. This means that Ukraine’s needs have increased by one and a half times in 12 months compared to the total amount made available as support to Ukraine by the EU over the next four years. According to the annual index of risks to 2023 prepared by the Munich Security Conference, a global forum for debate on international security policy, Russia was perceived as the top risk by five of the G7 countries. In 2024, this perception is shared by only two G7 members. This is worrying, given Ukraine’s extremely significant dependence on the political, economic and military support of the G7. This does not bode well for the ability of Europe’s political leaders to maintain the public support needed for continued aid transfers.
Gaza along with Ukraine is also a challenge for the West
Ukraine is not the only crisis attracting the collective West’s attention. The war in Gaza and the wider conflict across the Middle East is and will remain high on the agenda. But there are many other burning issues that often fail to make global news headlines. The ongoing civil war in Sudan, the intensifying conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia all have the potential to directly fuel fears of another large-scale migration crisis in the minds of the Western public. A nuclear strike by North Korea, Iranian sponsorship of terrorists throughout the Middle East, and the apparent consolidation of a new “axis of evil” between these two and Russia are unlikely to calm tensions in Western capitals.
Against this backdrop, the war in Ukraine has become a major and increasingly distracting topic. Many leaders – particularly in Europe – are concerned about Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the possible end of a meaningful transatlantic alliance. If the US withdraws support, there are fears that Europe could face even greater Russian aggression if the war in Ukraine continues. The challenge for Ukraine and its Western partners is to establish an equivalent to the 38th parallel on the Korean Peninsula. The alternative to the West doubling military support for Kiev is a slow and painful defeat on the battlefield, with far-reaching consequences beyond Ukraine. (The Conversation)
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